试析美欧日对华“去风险”政策

An Evaluation of U.S.,Europe,and Japan's “De-risking” Policies Towards China

“去风险”已成为美国主导的西方对华经济战略的“关键词”。美国、欧洲及日本将“去风险”一词转用到国际政治和地缘战略领域,原因在于认识到“脱钩”政策不符合己方利益,因而试图以“去风险”论统一对华战略认知,并根据其各自的利益诉求对“去风险”政策的目标、对象及措施作出不同的规划并推进实施。美欧日对华“去风险”的具体举措一方面是重点强化关键矿产资源、半导体和蓄电池等战略物资的供应链韧性,减少对中国供应链的依赖;另一方面通过加强对尖端核心技术的合作研发、争取国际标准制定权、实施出口管制与投资限制等手段,共同保护尖端核心技术。美欧日对华推进“去风险”政策不仅将在政治、经济等层面对中国发展产生深远影响,还将冲击全球产业链供应链,并可能损害美欧日企业的利益。

“De-risking” has emerged as a key term in the U.S.-led Western economic strategy towards China. The United States,Europe and Japan have extended the use of “de-risking” into the realms of international politics and geopolitics because they now realize that a policy of “decoupling” does not align with their own interests. Consequently,they attempt to unify their understanding of “de-risking” as a framework to shape their policies towards China, while devising distinct plans and implementing measures of “de-risking” based on their respective policy goals,targets,and needs. The specific measures taken by the U.S.,Europe,and Japan in their “de-risking” policies towards China are mainly twofold. On the one hand,they focus on enhancing the resilience of supply chains for critical mineral resources and strategic materials such as semiconductors and batteries,with the aim of creating reliable supply chains that reduce dependence on China. On the other hand, they collectively restrict China's access to critical advanced technologies by bolstering cooperation in research and development of cutting-edge technologies, seeking control over international standards, and implementing export controls and investment restrictions. The advancement of U.S.,Europe,and Japan's “de-risking” policies towards China is poised to have profound implications not only on China's political and economic development,but also on global industrial and supply chains,potentially harming the interests of the U.S, Europe and Japan's businesses.