美国重构新能源汽车产业链的动向及影响

The Trends and Implications of the U.S. Restructuring of the New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain

继中美半导体之争后,拜登政府将新能源汽车产业定位为关键战略产业,新能源汽车产业链也成为中美博弈的重点议题。为维护美国本土车企利益,提高美国供应链韧性及其在全球新能源汽车市场中的份额,美国正在加快重构新能源汽车产业链。拜登先后签署以《通胀削减法案》为代表的多个法案,推行颇具保护主义色彩的产业补贴政策,扩大新能源汽车产业链可享受优待政策的范围。美国相关产业政策势必会加剧全球新能源汽车领域的竞争,直接影响产业格局。从理论分析视角而言,美国的相关产业政策将加剧全球竞争,提升美国市场的吸引力和美国产品在全球的占有率。从实证角度看,预计到2025年及2030年,美国新能源汽车的全球销量将显著提高,压低中国车企在全球市场的份额,其在插电混动汽车方面的优势尤其明显。由于民主、共和两党对于传统能源和新能源的偏重明显不同,美国国内政治的演变可能导致相关政策的推行受到制约。

Following the China-U.S. semiconductor dispute,the Biden administration has designated the new energy vehicle as a critical strategic industry,making the new energy vehicle industrial chain a focal point in U. S.-China strategic competition. In order to safeguard the interests of American domestic automakers,enhance the resilience of U.S. supply chains,and increase America's shares in the global new energy vehicle market,the United States is accelerating the restructuring of the new energy vehicle industry chain. President Biden has signed a number of bills,notably the Inflation Reduction Act, to promote a pronouncedly protectionist subsidy policy and expand the scope of preferential policies for the new energy vehicle industry chain. U.S. industry policies in this regard are bound to reinforce the global competition dynamics in the new energy vehicle sector and directly affect its industrial landscape. From a theoretical perspective,relevant U. S. industry policies will intensify global competition,enhance the attractiveness of the U. S. market,and increase the market share of U.S. products globally. From an empirical perspective,it is expected that by 2025 and 2030,the global sales of U. S.new energy vehicles will increase significantly,reducing China's market share,especially in the field of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Due to the obvious differences in the Democratic and Republican parties' preference for traditional and new energy sources,shifts in U.S. domestic politics may impede the implementation of related policies.