中国生猪产业碳排放经验解构与动态达峰路径选择

Deconstructing the Experience of China’s Pig Industry Carbon Emissions and Choosing a Dynamic Path to Peak

生猪产业是中国畜牧业的碳排放“大户”,科学高效的减排路径直接决定着畜牧业碳减排目标的实现和高质量发展的有效推进。本文在运用生命周期法测算生猪产业碳排放的基础上,使用广义迪氏指数分解法分析其演变及影响因素,并基于蒙特卡洛模拟对生猪产业碳排放的演化趋势进行了动态情景分析,进而探寻出生猪产业的碳达峰路径。研究发现:第一,2007—2021年中国生猪产业碳排放总量呈“快速上升—缓慢下降—急速下降后又上升”的波动型演变趋势;各养殖模式碳排放强度由大到小排序依次为散养、中规模、小规模和大规模;散养生猪的碳排放强度下降趋势最明显,而余者均缓慢波动下降。第二,观察期内生猪产业碳排放的各影响因素表现出不同的促增和促降效应,只有生产和消费统筹考虑才能真正反映生猪产业碳排放的变动趋势。第三,在基准情境下,生猪产业碳排放在2039年达到峰值;在节粮增效情境下,生猪产业碳排放的增速放缓,但在2030年前仍将继续增长;而在种养结合情景下,生猪产业碳排放能够在2027年提早达峰。提高生猪生产效率,采用种养结合发展模式,是生猪产业实现绿色低碳高质量发展最有前景的路径。

Pig industry in China is a significant contributor to carbon emissions within the livestock sector.Efficient reduction of carbon emissions is crucial to achieving China's carbon reduction goals for the livestock industry and promoting high-quality development.This paper employs the life cycle assessment method to calculate carbon emissions of the pig industry and the generalized Divisia index decomposition method to analyze factors influencing its evolution.Additionally,this paper conducts a dynamic scenario analysis of the evolution trend of carbon emissions from the pig industry using Monte Carlo simulation to explore the carbon peaking pathway of the industry.The study reveals that from 2007 to 2021,total carbon emissions of pig industry in China displays a fluctuating trend of rapid increase,followed by a slow decline,rapid decline,and finally,a rise.Additionally,carbon emission intensities of different breeding modes ranks from high to low are free-range,medium-scale,small-scale,and large-scale.Carbon emissions of free-range pig farming exhibits the most significant decrease,while those of the other modes fluctuat gradually and reduce.Secondly,throughout the observation period,different factors influencing carbon emissions from the pig industry have varying effects on either promoting or reducing emissions.Only a comprehensive approach to production and consumption can accurately reflect the carbon emission trend in the pig industry.Thirdly,under the baseline scenario,carbon emissions from the pig industry will peak in 2039.Under the scenario of reducing feed and increasing efficiency,the growth rate of carbon emissions from the pig industry will slow down,but they will still increase until 2030.However,under the the scenario of crop-livestock integration,carbon emissions from the pig industry can peak in 2027.Improving pig production efficiency and adopting the development model of crop-livestock integration are the most promising paths for the pig industry to achieve green,low-carbon,and high-quality development.