中国钾资源供需现状与资源保障程度

The supply and demand status and resource guarantee degree of potash in China

近年来,中国一直是世界上最大的钾盐进口国,钾盐资源十分紧缺。中国钾盐矿产主要分布在青海柴达木盆地、新疆罗布泊盐湖和西藏藏北盐湖区。世界钾盐主要生产国有加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、中国、德国、以色列、约旦7国,其钾盐产量占到了世界总产量的90%左右。近10年来,中国钾肥产量增势明显,我国钾肥自给率上升到50%以上,长期严重依赖进口的局面发生了根本性转变。2022年,中国钾肥表观消费量达到1442万t,占全球的比重约25%,位居全球第一,消费需求依然旺盛。2021年中国钾肥进口量约为785万t,主要进口地区为美国、乌兹别克斯坦和俄罗斯。2022年由于地缘冲突和各种制裁,钾肥价格一直保持高位。全球钾肥供应地与消费地分离现象明显,2000年以来发达国家钾肥消费趋于平稳,而发展中国家钾肥消费持续上升。截至2021年,世界钾盐储量静态储采比约76 a,中国为58 a。当前中国钾盐资源的开发有过热趋势,未来需要加强基础理论研究和技术手段的攻关,认真落实油钾兼探,加大“走出去”的政策扶持力度,合理控制产能,做到细水长流。

In recent years,China has been the world's largest importer of potassium salt,and potassium salt resources are very scarce.Potash deposits are mainly distributed in the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai,Lop Nur Salt Lake in Xinjiang,and Yanhu District in northern Tibet.The world's main potash producers are Canada,Russia,Belarus,China,Germany,Israel,and Jordan,with potash production accounting for about 90% of the world..In the past decade,potassium fertilizer production of China has increased significantly.The self-sufficiency rate of potassium fertilizer in China has increased to over 50%,and the long-term heavy dependence on imports has undergone a fundamental transformation.In 2022,the apparent consumption of potassium fertilizer in China reached 14.42 million tons,accounting for about 25% of the world,and ranking first in the world.Potash consumption in China is still strong.In 2021,China's potash imports was about 7.85 million tons,with the main import areas being the United States,Uzbekistan and Russia..In 2022,due to geopolitical conflicts and various sanctions,potash prices have remained high.Since 2000,the consumption of potash in developed countries has been stable,while that in developing countries has continued to rise.As of 2021,the static storage and production ratio of potash salt reserves in the world is about 76,and that in China is 58.The current development of potassium salt resources in China is trending towards overheating.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen basic theoretical research and technical means to tackle key issues,conscientiously implement the exploration of both oil and potassium,increase policy support for"going global",reasonably control production capacity,and achieve a long-term flow of fine water.