韧性视角下的高速公路突发事件应急能力评估研究

Evaluation of Freeway Emergency Response Capacity from the Perspective of Resilience

为应对高速公路上的各类突发事件,提高高速公路系统的应急能力,对高速公路路网的应急能力进行定量评估.基于系统韧性理论,提出完善的路网应急能力评估体系框架.结合云模型理论思想,采用改进云层次分析法对高速公路路网的应急能力指标权重进行确定,并运用云模型对其应急能力进行评估.以天津高速为例开展应急能力评估,结果表明:其总体应急能力得分为91.464分,处于良等级,应注重加强路网恢复及优化能力和适应能力建设,提高路网综合韧性.运用该方法可对高速公路路网的应急能力进行定量评估,为路网系统应急管理能力的提高提供科学依据.

To respond to various emergencies on the freeway and improve the emergency response capability of the freeway system,a quantitative evaluation of the emergency response capability of the freeway road network was conducted.Based on the system resilience theory,a sound framework of road network emergency response capacity evaluation system is proposed.Combined with the theoretical idea of cloud model,we use the improved cloud hierarchy analysis method to determine the weight of the emergency capability indexes of the freeway road network,and use the cloud model to evaluate its emergency capability.Taking Tianjin Expressway as an example to carry out emergency response capacity evaluation.The results show that its overall emergency response capability score is 91.464,which is in good grade,and should focus on strengthening the road network recovery and optimization capability and adaptive capacity construction to improve the comprehensive resilience of the road network.The use of the method can be more accurate quantitative evaluation of the emergency response capacity of the freeway network,providing a scientific basis for the improvement of the emergency management capacity of the road network system.