基于贝叶斯推理的战场目标意图识别方法研究

Research on the Method of Battlefield Target Intention Recognition Based on Bayesian Reasoning

针对海战场目标意图识别中贝叶斯网络拓扑结构构建存在的主观性、人类知识局限性等问题,提出了一种构建贝叶斯网络的方法。该方法首先基于航母编队联合作战条令构建贝叶斯网络的拓扑结构,然后由专家指定网络参数,最后将推理结果与DST(证据理论)结合对战场目标意图进行识别。通过想定案例验证了所提方法的合理性和有效性,为贝叶斯网络的构建提供了一种新的思路。

A method for constructing Bayesian networks is proposed to address the subjectivity and limitations of human knowledge in the construction of Bayesian network topology for target intention recognition in naval war-fare.This method first constructs a Bayesian network topology based on the joint combat doctrine of aircraft car-rier formation,and then the network parameters are specified by experts.Finally,the inference results are com-bined with DST(Evidence Theory)to identify the intention of battlefield targets.The rationality and effective-ness of the proposed method were verified through scenario studies,providing a new approach for the construc-tion of Bayesian networks.