基于灰色理论的输变电工程全过程造价风险建模评估

Modeling and Evaluation of Cost Risk in the Whole Process of Power Transmission and Transformation Project Based on Grey Theory

为了避免输变电工程建设过程中出现结算超预算情况,提出基于灰色理论的输变电工程全过程造价风险建模评估方法。建立输变电工程全过程造价风险识别特征映射模型。确定分析序列,构造分析矩阵,计算灰色关联度,并利用灰色理论分别计算概算与结算造价信息,获取风险函数与概率密度函数,根据风险函数期望值与方差评估输变电工程全过程造价风险。仿真实验证明,此种评估方法符合风险规律,能够正确识别敏感因素,有助于更好地控制工程建设各项费用。

In order to avoid that the settlement exceeds the budget in the construction process of power transmission and transformation project,the whole process cost risk modeling and evaluation method of power transmission and transformation project based on grey theory is proposed.The characteristic mapping model of cost risk identification in the whole process of power transmission and transformation project is established.The analysis sequence,the analysis matrix,the grey correlation degree,the grey theory to calculate the estimate and settlement cost information respectively,the risk function and probability density function,and the cost risk of the whole process of power transmission and transformation project according to the expected value and variance of the risk function.Simulation experiments show that this evaluation method conforms to the law of risk,can correctly identify sensitive factors,and is helpful to better control the cost of engineering construction.