液化石油气铁路罐车运输风险预警模型及应用

Risk Early Warning Model for Railway Tanker Transportation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Its Application

结合液化石油气铁路罐车运输的托运受理、装车发送、途中运输、到达卸车和保管交付5个作业子流程,采用工作结构分解法(WBS)对每个流程进行工作分解,得到工作分解结构图,采用风险结构分解法(RBS)从人员、环境、机械设备、管理和液化石油气5个方面对每个子流程进行风险分解,得到风险分解结构图;将工作分解结构图和风险分解结构图进行矩阵耦合,形成每个作业流程的WBS-RBS耦合矩阵,确定风险因素,得到每个流程风险预警指标清单,构建LPG铁路罐车运输风险预警指标体系;利用可拓理论,建立LPG铁路罐车运输风险预警模型,将该模型应用于中石化某油库LPG铁路罐车运输,确定该LPG铁路罐车运输风险预警指数为Ⅰ级预警,安全状态良好。

In this paper,targeting at the five sub-processes of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)railway tanker transportation,namely consignment acceptance,vehicle loading and dispatching,en-route transportation,vehicle arrival and unloading,and cargo custody and delivery,we applied the work breakdown structure(WBS)method to the work activities of each sub-process and obtained the work breakdown structure diagram.Next,using the risk breakdown structure(RBS)method,we decomposed the risks of each sub-process from the five aspects of personnel,environment,machinery,management and LPG,and obtained the risk breakdown structure diagram.Then by juxtaposing the WBS diagram and the RBS diagram,we formed the WBS-RBS coupling matrix of each sub-process,determined the relevant risk factors,obtained a list of risk early warning indexes for each sub-process,and constructed the risk early warning index system for railway tanker transportation of LPG.At the end,using the extension theory,we established an LPG railway tanker transportation risk early warning model,applied it to the LPG railway tanker transportation at a certain Sinopec oil depot,and concluded that according to the model,the oil depot scored level I warning and showed good safety status.