技术距离、研发投入结构与中国经济增长

Technological Distance,the R&D Structure and China's Economic Growth

2008年以来,我国研发投入快速增长,专利申请量升至全球第一,但全要素生产率增长不快,出现了所谓“科技创新困境”。同时,我国距世界科技前沿的距离不断缩小,美国的打压遏制更是大幅增加了国际技术扩散成本。科技创新的成功需要基础研究、应用研究、试验发展研究等不同类型研发活动的配合。因此,除研发投入总量外,研发投入结构也非常重要。本文研究表明,基础研究比重并非越大越好,而是受到技术距离的影响:当技术距离较大时,应充分利用后发优势,侧重于技术引进吸收的试验发展研究,而当技术距离缩小时,应逐步提高基础研究与应用研究占比。数值模拟表明,如果将中国基础研究与应用研究占比从当前水平提高至美日韩平均水平,中国平衡增长路径上的年均增长率可提高1.32个百分点,这是一个巨大的改进。在新发展阶段,中国技术距离已大幅缩小,应尽快调整研发投入结构,大幅提升基础研究与应用研究投入比重,探索激励基础研究与原创性创新的机制安排,促进高质量发展。

Since 2008,China's R&D investment has increased rapidly,and the number of patent applications has also risen to the first place in the world,but the growth rate of TFP dropped,falling into the so-called"dilemma of scientific and technological innovation".At the same time,the distance between China and the scientific and technological frontiers of the world is decreasing,and the suppression and containment of the United States has greatly increased the cost of international technology diffusion.The success of scientific and technological innovation requires the cooperation of different types of R&D activities,such as basic research,applied research,experimental development research.Therefore,in addition to the total R&D investment,the R&D expenditure structure is also very important.This paper shows that the proportion of basic research is not the more the better,but is affected by the technological distance.When the technological distance is large,we should make full use of the advantage of backwardness and focus on the experimental development of technology introduction and absorption,while when the technological distance is reduced,the proportion of basic and applied research should be gradually increased.Numerical simulation shows that if the proportion of basic and applied research in China is raised from the current level to the average level of the United States,Japan and South Korea,the average annual growth rate on China's balanced growth path can be increased by 1.3 percentage points,which is a huge improvement.In the new stage of development,China's technological distance has been greatly reduced,so we should adjust the R&D expenditure structure as soon as possible,greatly increase the proportion of basic and applied research investment,and explore mechanisms to encourage basic research and original innovation to promote high-quality development.