中国产业链安全性评估及其提升路径——基于产业关联和“三链”综合双重视角

China's Industrial Chain Security Assessment and Its Improvement Path:Based on the Comprehensive Perspective of Industrial Correlation and the Integration of"Three Chains"

提升产业链安全性对维护一国经济安全和加快构建新发展格局具有重大战略意义。基于中国细分行业的贸易数据,从产业关联视角和“三链”综合视角对中国产业链安全性进行综合评估,研究发现:第一,从产业关联来看,中国出口风险明显高于进口风险,进口风险主要集中于高技术制造业。第二,中国高技术制造业产业链安全性有待提升,其典型特征是:从双边价值链角度来看,中国高技术制造业对德国和美国的进口依赖较大;从全球价值链角度来看,中国高技术制造业的国际竞争力较弱;从区域价值链角度来看,亚太地区高技术制造业的区域价值链构建尚不完善。提升中国产业链安全性,应通过增强内循环和调整贸易结构优化产业链发展结构,通过强化自主创新和区域创新合作提升产业链发展水平,通过整合亚太区域价值链优化产业链发展环境。

Improving the security of the industrial chain is of great strategic significance to safeguarding a country's economic security and accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern.Based on the trade data of China's subdivided industries,the safety of China's industrial chain is comprehensively assessed from the perspective of industrial correlation and the"three chains".The study finds that:firstly,from the perspective of industrial correlation,China's export risk is significantly higher than the import risk,and the import risk is mainly concentrated in high-tech manufacturing.Secondly,the security of China's high-tech manufacturing industry chain needs to be improved.Its typical characteristics are:from the perspective of bilateral value chain,China's high-tech manufacturing industry depends heavily on the import of Germany and the United States.From the perspective of global value chain,the international competitiveness of China's high-tech manufacturing industry is weak.From the perspective of regional value chain,the construction of regional value chain of high-tech manufacturing industry in the Asia-Pacific region is not perfect.To improve the security of China's industrial chain,we should optimize the development structure of the industrial chain by strengthening the internal circulation and adjusting the trade structure,enhance the development level of the industrial chain by strengthening independent innovation and regional innovation cooperation,and optimize the development environment of the industrial chain by integrating the value chain of the Asia-Pacific region.