海外公民涉恐安全风险评估方法——基于风险管理理论和加权K-means聚类

A Method for Assessing the Security Risk of Overseas Citizens Involved in Terrorism——Based on Risk Management Theory and Weighted K-means Clustering

海外公民安全是中国海外利益安全的主要组成部分,是践行总体国家安全观“以人民安全为宗旨”的具体体现。当前我国公民在海外面临的涉恐安全风险日益加剧,甚至威胁到公民个体的生命安全。因此,提出了一种结合风险管理理论和加权K-means聚类的风险评估方法。其中,利用“袭击发生概率”和“袭击成功率”两个指标来评估风险的“相对可能性”,用“死亡人数”和“受伤人数”两个衡量后果的“相对严重性”,进而构建出海外公民涉恐安全风险评估指标体系和分析模型,通过数据聚类的方式将风险分级,从而对我国海外公民涉恐安全风险进行定量的评估,以期为保护我国海外公民安全提供较为有价值和相对客观的参考建议。

The security of overseas citizens is a major component of the security of China's overseas interests,and is a concrete manifestation of practicing the overall national security concept of“taking people's security as the purpose”.At present,the security risks of Chinese citizens overseas related to terrorism are increasing,even threatening the lives of individual citizens.Therefore,a risk assessment method is proposed,which combines risk management theory and weighted K-means clustering.Among them,two indicators of“probability of attack”and“success rate of attack”are used to evaluate the“relative likelihood”of risk.Moreover,“number of deaths”and“number of injuries”are used to measure the“relative severity”of the consequences.An index system and analysis model are constructed for assessing the security risks of overseas citizens involved in terrorism.Furthermore,the risks are classified by means of data clustering to quantitatively assess the security risk of overseas citizens involved in terrorism in China,which provides more valuable and relatively objective reference suggestions for protecting the security of Chinese citizen overseas.