数字普惠金融、居民家庭杠杆率与促进消费的动态关系研究——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的分析

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Digital Inclusive Finance,Household Leverage Ratio,and Promoting Consumption——Analysis based on Chinese household tracking survey data

如何实现金融与消费的有效融合,撬动金融对居民消费的能动性作用是当前我国稳经济促发展的重要议题。本文将数字普惠金融、居民家庭杠杆率和居民家庭消费纳入同一框架体系中,利用我国2018和2020年家庭追踪调查微观数据,就数字普惠金融对居民家庭消费(消费规模和消费升级)的影响进行了实证分析,并检验了居民家庭杠杆率的中介效应。研究发现,数字普惠金融对我国居民家庭消费和消费升级均会产生显著的正向促进作用,但相比较而言,数字普惠金融对居民家庭消费规模扩大的正向赋能作用更强;居民家庭杠杆率在数字普惠金融对居民家庭消费的影响中存在中介效应,表现为负向的挤出效应。基于此,应大力发展数字普惠金融,防范居民家庭杠杆率上涨风险,提升居民家庭收入水平。

How to achieve effective integration of finance and consumption,and leverage the active role of finance in residents'consumption,is an important issue in stabilizing China's economy and promoting development.This article incorporates digital inclusive finance,household leverage ratio,and household consumption into the same framework system.Using micro data from China's 2018 and2020 household tracking surveys,an empirical analysis is conducted on the impact of digital inclusive finance on household consumption(consumption scale and upgrading),and the mediating effect of household leverage ratio is tested.Research has found that digital inclusive fi-nance has a significant positive promoting effect on both household consumption and consumption upgrading in China.However,compared to this,digital inclusive finance has a stronger positive empowering effect on the expansion of household consumption scale;The leverage ratio of households has a mediating effect on the impact of digital inclusive finance on household consumption,manifested as a negative crowding out effect.Based on this,efforts should be made to develop digital inclusive finance,prevent the risk of increasing household lever-age,and improve household income levels.