居民参加养老保险对生育意愿的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Residents'Participation in Pension Insurance on Fertility Intention

妥善解决社会养老的同时平衡生育意愿,对促进社会和谐稳定具有重要意义。运用2018年中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证分析我国居民参与养老保险对个人生育意愿的影响。研究结果发现:参与养老保险会对个人生育意愿和生育儿子意愿产生替代效应,养老保险使个体生育意愿降低2.8%,生育儿子意愿降低3.4%,尤其降低了男性群体(2.8%)、农村群体(3.4%)的个人生育意愿;个体参保数量越多,则“替代效应”越强;不同分类的养老保险对个人生育意愿和生育儿子意愿的影响存在显著差异。基于此,应建立与我国基本养老保险制度挂钩的鼓励生育政策、健全生育与补充养老保险相关制度、加强对女性生育和就业的保障。

Properly solving social pension needs while balancing fertility wishes is of great significance to promoting social harmony and stability.Using data from the 2018 China Family Dynamics Panel Survey(CFPS),we empirically analyze the impact of Chinese resi-dents'participation in pension insurance on personal fertility intentions.The results found that participating in pension insurance has a substi-tution effect on individuals'willingness to have children and sons.Pension insurance reduces individuals'willingness to have children by2.8%and 3.4%,especially in the male group(2.8%)and rural group(3.4%);The more individuals participate in insurance,the stronger the“substitution effect”;There are significant differences in the impact of different categories of pension insurance on individuals'willingness to have children and sons.Based on this,it is necessary to establish a policy of encouraging childbirth that is linked to China's basic pension insurance system,improve the relevant systems of childbirth and supplementary pension insurance,and strengthen the protection of female childbirth and employment.