关于当前我国总体价格运行中若干问题的思考

Thoughts on Several Problems in the Current Overall Price Operation in China

近期我国CPI和PPI接续下行引起学界和业界对我国是否会发生通货紧缩的担忧。研究表明,当前我国总体物价水平仍旧属于合理调整,主要因能源价格和食品价格下降而致,并未发展成通货紧缩。PPI-CPI剪刀差并不意味着也并不能预测通货紧缩的发生。我国消费和投资需求逐渐复苏,出口超预期恢复,社会预期转好,因此并不存在形成通货紧缩的经济基础。未来,我国仍需加大逆周期调控力度,防止经济出现“L型”复苏态势,警惕产业链调整对国内外商直接投资的冲击影响。

Recently,China's CPI and PPI have continued to decline,causing worries about whether deflation will occur in China.Research shows that the current overall price level in China is still within the reasonable adjustment range.This was largely due to lower en-ergy and food prices,and did not develop into deflation.The PPI-CPI scissors difference does not mean and cannot predict the occurrence of deflation.The study shows that China's overall price level is still reasonable adjustment,mainly due to the decline in energy prices and food prices,and has not developed into deflation.The PPI-CPI scissors gap does not mean and does not predict deflation.China's consumption and investment demand has gradually recovered,exports have recovered beyond expectations,and social expectations have im-proved,so there is no economic basis for inflation.In the future,China still needs to increase counter-cyclical regulation and control efforts to prevent the emergence of an“L-shaped”economic recovery trend,and be alert to the problems such as the impact of the“anti-globalization”of the United States on our industrial upgrading,the deterioration of future expectations of short-term contraction of investment,and the impact of the global economic recession on China.