我国生猪产能布局演进脉络、特征及影响因素研究

A Study on the Evolution,Characteristics,and Influencing Factors of China's Pig Production Capacity Layout

实现合理的生猪产能布局,对于更好实现生猪稳产保供具有重要的现实意义。本文采用基尼系数和莫兰指数分析我国生猪产能的布局的演变特征,并基于2002-2021年各省份面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型对影响生猪产能布局主要因素进行分析。研究结果表明:样本期内我国生猪产能持续向部分省份集中,域集聚程度有所增强;生猪产能布局主要受到玉米产量、播种面积、常住人口数量、生猪养殖优势、环保政策等因素影响,并存在明显空间效应。基于上述结论,应因势利导、优化生猪产能合理布局,用好环保规制手段,促进区域生猪产业协同发展。

Realizing a reasonable layout of pig production capacity has great practical significance for better achieving stable production and supply of pigs.This article uses Gini coefficient and Moran index to analyze the evolution characteristics of the China's pig production capacity layout,and based on panel data from various provinces from 2002 to 2021,uses spatial Durbin model to analyze the main factors affecting of the pig production capacity layout.The research results indicate that during the sample period,China's pig production capacity continued to concentrate in some provinces,and the degree of regional agglomeration increased;The layout of pig production capacity is mainly influenced by factors such as corn yield,sowing area,number of permanent residents,advantages of pig farming,and environmental protection policies,and there are significant spatial effects.Based on the above conclusion,it is necessary to guide and optimize the reasonable layout of pig production capacity according to the situation,make good use of environmental regulations,and promote the coordinated development of the regional pig industry.