我国边疆城市与周边国家经济增长的关联性研究

Research on the Correlation between the Economic Growth of China's Border Cities and Neighboring Countries

在我国加快构建新发展格局的背景下,边疆地区是连接国内外大循环的重要枢纽,周边国家是国际大循环的关键区域。本文使用莫兰指数分析1991-2021年我国边疆城市与周边国家经济发展关联度的时空差异,结果显示:全域范围内两者经济发展始终存在正相关,但研究期内局域性空间聚集特征发生变化。进一步地,将新经济地理学提出的“市场潜能”指标作为测量地区经济增长溢出效应的代理变量,构建空间误差模型,结果显示,自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,我国对外开放持续深化,使国内各区域开放潜力得到有效释放,我国边疆城市与周边国家经济合作水平和经济发展的协同性得到提升,双边互利共赢的合作新格局已初步形成,沿边地区逐渐从开放“末梢”转变为“前沿”。但与非边疆城市相比,我国边疆城市与周边国家的市场潜能对彼此经济增长的促进作用仍有提升空间。为此,应培育边疆特色产业链,集中力量发展边疆中心城市,并以此为支撑,分段构建边疆国际经济合作带,放大区域经济增长的溢出效应。

In the context of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern in China,border areas are important hubs connecting domestic and international circulation,and neighboring countries are the key areas of the international circulation.This article uses the Moran index to analyze the spatial and temporal differences in the correlation between the economic development of China's border cities and neighboring countries from 1991 to 2021.The results show that there is always a positive correlation of economic development between members in the whole region,but the local spatial clustering characteristics have changed during the research period.Furthermore,the indicator of“market potential”proposed by New Economic Geography is used as the proxy variable to measure the spillover effect of regional economic growth,and a spatial error model is constructed.The results show that since the introduction of the“Belt and Road”initiative,China's opening up to the outside world has continued to deepen,effectively releasing the opening-up potential of domestic regions.The level of economic cooperation and synergy of economic development between our border cities and neighboring countries has been improved,a new pattern of bilateral mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation has been initially formed,and the border areas have gradually changed from the“end”to the“front”of opening up.However,compared to non border cities,there is still room for improvement in the market potential of border cities in China and neighboring countries in promoting each other's economic growth.To this end,it is necessary to cultivate a distinctive industrial chain in the border region,concentrate efforts on developing central cities in the border region,and use this as a support to construct borderland international economic cooperation belts in segments,so as to magnify the spillover effect of regional economic growth.