基于DID的市场型环境规制效力测度——以碳排放权交易机制为例

Measuring the Effectiveness of Market-based Environmental Regulation with DID——Taking Carbon Emission Right of Trading Mechanism as an Example

碳排放权交易政策是我国实现双碳目标的重要手段,其有利于我国有效控制碳排放。文章基于2006-2019年我国283个地级市面板数据,采取DID研究检验我国碳排放权交易政策试行效果。结果表明:碳排放权交易政策对控制碳排放具有显著的正向促进作用,不同地区能源结构的差异在碳排放权交易和当地碳排放量之间发挥着中介作用。同时,文章利用LSTM网络等方法预测我国碳排放量增长走势,结果表明:我国碳排放量仍将持续增加,但碳排放增速的走势逐渐降低。为此,应该继续坚持碳排放权交易制度的施行,调整能源结构,同时加大碳排放监管力度,助力实现碳达峰。

The carbon emission trading policy is an important means for China to achieve the dual carbon goals,which is conducive to effective control of carbon emissions in China.The article is based on panel data from 283 prefecture level cities in China from 2013 to 2019 and adopts DID research to test the effectiveness of Chinese carbon emission trading policy pilot implementation.The results indicate that carbon emission trading policies have a significant positive promoting effect on controlling carbon emissions,further verifying the mediating effect between differences in energy structure in different regions and local carbon emissions.Simultaneously,using LSTM network and other methods to predict the growth trend of carbon emissions in China.The results indicate that Chinese carbon emissions will continue to increase,but the trend of carbon emission growth rate will gradually decrease.To this end,we should continue to adhere to the implementation of the carbon emission trading system,adjust the energy structure,continue to increase carbon emission regulation,and help achieve carbon peaking.