基于博弈论组合赋权和MARCOS的能源互联网园区项目综合效益评价

Comprehensive benefit evaluation for Energy Internet park projects based on combined weight of game

随着能源革命和“互联网+”战略的提出和可再生能源的快速发展,能源互联网作为一种新的能源业态逐渐成为能源转型过程中构建新型电力系统的重要组成部分。为衡量能源互联网园区项目的综合效益,构建了综合效益评价模型。首先,建立了涵盖经济、社会、环境以及工程推广4个维度的能源互联网园区项目综合效益评价体系;其次,运用博弈论思想将使用熵权法(EWM)和贝叶斯最优最劣法(BBWM)生成的主观和客观权重进行组合,得到涵盖数据信息和指标含义的综合权重;然后,构建了依据折中方案度量备选方案并排序(MARCOS)的能源互联网园区项目综合效益评价模型,并通过对北京某微电网项目进行综合效益评价,得出清洁能源消纳率、投资回收期和供电可靠性是影响能源互联网园区项目综合效益的3个关键性指标,以及该项目的历年综合效益标表现;最后,通过敏感性分析和排序一致性检验论证了所提模型的鲁棒性。

With the energy revolution,the proposal of the"Internet+"strategy,and the growing of renewable energy,Energy Internet,as a new energy application format,has gradually become an driver for energy transformation.To measure the comprehensive benefit of an Energy Internet park project,an evaluation model is constructed.A comprehensive benefit evaluation system for an Energy Internet park project covers four dimensions,economic benefit,social benefit,environmental benefit,and promotional value.Then,the comprehensive weights for the indicators are obtained by balancing the subjective and objective weights generated by Entropy Weight Method(EWM)and Bayesian Best and Worst Method(BBWM)with game theory.The comprehensive weights reflect all data and indicators mentioned.The comprehensive benefit evaluation model for Energy Internet park projects based on Measurement Alternatives and Ranking according to the Compromise Solution(MARCOS)is constructed.Taking a comprehensive benefit evaluation system for a microgrid in Beijing as the example,it is found that the clean energy consumption rate,payback period,and power supply reliability are three key indicators that affect the annual comprehensive benefit of the project.Finally,the robustness of the proposed model is demonstrated through sensitivity analysis and ranking consistency testing.