美国发动代理人战争的国内原因:以叙利亚内战为例

Domestic Factors for the United States to Launch Proxy Wars:The Case of Syrian Civil War

作为非常规的战争形态,代理人战争长期以来是大国竞争及区域博弈的重要战略工具。代理人战争是干预国家以较为隐蔽的方式向当地行为体提供支持参与武装冲突以影响目标国家事务的战争形态。其中,美国是全球发动代理人战争最为频繁的国家之一。关于美国发动代理人战争的原因,已有研究从不同角度展开分析,但仍然存在解释力不足的问题。本文认为美国卷入代理人战争的决策有着深刻的国内政治原因。面对他国的内战,美国存在直接干预、间接干预以及不干预等选项。美国决策者有着护持国家总体利益与自身政治权位的强烈动机,后者在外交决策中的作用尤其显著。在权位护持的动力驱使下,决策者需要规避国内观众成本带来的政治压力,把外交信息私有化以及外交承诺模糊化,在直接干预与不干预之外找到代理人战争作为干预手段。通过对美国介入叙利亚内战案例的过程追踪,可以验证本文的研究假设。

As an irregular warfare,proxy war has long been an important strategic tool in great power competition and regional conflict.Proxy warf is a form of warfare,in which external interveners provide support to local actors in a more covert manner to participate in armed conflicts and influence the affairs of the targeted state.The United States is one of the most frequent countries to launch proxy wars in the world.Although many scholars have studied the reasons for the US launching proxy wars,there is still insufficient explanation.This article argues that domestic political reasons promote the United States to engage in proxy wars.The United States has options such as direct/indirect intervention,and non-intervention in the face of civil wars occurred in other states.Its decisionmakers have strong motivations to protect the national interests and their own political power,with the latter playing a particularly significant role in diplomatic decision-making.Driven by the dynamic of power maintenance,the America􀆳s decision-makers need to avoid the political pressure from domestic audience,they privatize diplomatic information,blur diplomatic commitments,and take proxy wars as intervention means beyond direct intervention and non-interven⁃tion.Through tracking the case of US involvement in the Syrian civil war,the research hypothesis of this article is tested.