中国省域居民文化消费时空特征及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Residents’Cultural Consumption at the Provincial Level in China

居民文化消费的提升对引导经济结构转型、促进以国内大循环为主体的新发展格局构建具有重要的推动作用。本研究基于2013—2020年居民人均文化消费支出数据,运用统计分析、空间自相关、标准差椭圆和MGWR模型,探讨中国31个省域单元的居民文化消费时空特征及影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)全国居民人均文化消费支出占比呈下降趋势,且城镇居民比农村居民的下降趋势更为明显;省域居民人均文化消费支出正向空间关联性较为稳定,相对差距减小,具有向下收敛的特征。(2)居民文化消费由沿海地区向中西部地区波动减弱,热点区域集中在京津冀和长三角地区,冷点区域集中在西部地区,东热西冷的两极分化格局依然显著。(3)居民文化消费重心向西南方向移动,东西差距在缩小,南北差距在扩大,且主体区域向“胡焕庸线”以西偏移。(4)影响因素的作用尺度差异明显,经济水平和教育水平回归系数的空间异质性较强,而其他因素较弱;经济水平和教育水平的回归系数在空间上由东南向西北递增,而产业水平、信息化水平和收入水平的影响由南向北递减。

The improvement of residents’cultural consumption plays an important role in driving the transformation of the economic structure and promoting the construction of a new development pattern with domestic macro-circulation as the main body.Based on data of per capita cultural consumption expenditure by residents from 2013 to 2020,this study applied statistical analysis,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse,and MGWR models to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of cultural consumption by residents in 31 provincial units in China.The results show as follows.(1)The per capita cultural consumption expenditure ratio of national residents shows a downward trend,and the downward trend is more pronounced among urban residents relative to rural residents.The positive spatial correlation of per capita cultural consumption expenditure among provincial residents is relatively stable,with a decrease in relative disparity and a downward convergence characteristic.(2)The fluctuation of cultural consumption of residents from the coastal areas to the central and western regions has weakened,with hot spots concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta region,and cold spots concentrated in the western region.The polarization pattern of“east hotness and west coldness”is still significant.(3)The center of gravity of residents’cultural consumption is shifting to the southwest,with the east-west gap narrowing,the north-south gap widening,and the main area shifting to the west of the Hu Huanyong Line.(4)The scale of influence factors varies significantly,with strong spatial heterogeneity in the regression coefficients of economic and educational levels,while other factors are relatively weak.The regression coefficients of economic and educational levels increase in spatial order from the southeast to the northwest,while the impact of industry level,information technology level,and income level decreases from the south to the north.