商业健康保险对中国经济增长和波动的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Commercial Health Insurance on China's Economic Growth and Economic Fluctuations

文章主要对商业健康保险与中国经济增长、经济波动之间的关系进行研究。通过引入健康人力资本,构建了包含风险冲击与保险保障的理论模型,同时利用中国分省宏观层面的数据,基于面板门槛模型进行了实证分析。研究发现,初始出险概率、损失程度、免赔额度和初始市场力量参数等因素的改变,会对经济增长和经济波动产生不同影响。基准回归结果表明,提高商业健康险保费、保险密度以及保险深度都能够促进经济增长并且减少经济波动。动态面板门槛模型回归结果以及稳健性检验结果与基准回归结果基本保持一致。

This paper studies the relationship between commercial health insurance and China's economic growth and economic fluctuations.By introducing healthy human capital,a theoretical model that includes risk shock and insurance protection is constructed.At the same time,based on the panel threshold model,an empirical analysis is conductedwithChina's provincial macro-level data.Theoretical research has found that the reduction of factors such as the degree of loss,deductible limits,initial market power parameters and the increase of the initial risk probability will promote economic growth and increase economic volatility.In the empirical part,the benchmark regression results show that the increase in commercial health insurance premium,insurance density and depth can promote economic growth;the increase in commercial health insurance premium and insurance density can reduce economic fluctuations,and the increase in insurance depth will increase economic fluctuations.The dynamic panel threshold model regression and robustness test results are basically consistent with the benchmark regression results.