校园足球政策执行效果关键影响因素研究——基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC方法

Research on the Key Factors Affecting School Football Policy Implementation——Based on the DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Method

识别并区分校园足球政策执行效果影响因素之间的相互关系及重要程度,对认清校园足球政策执行运行障碍有着重要现实意义。通过文献资料法、德尔菲法等构建出涵盖6个维度21个影响因素的因素集,基于系统分析采用DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC(决策试验和评价实验法—解释结构模型—交叉影响矩阵相乘法)方法对校园足球政策执行效果影响因素进行定量分析。通过DEMATEL法揭示各影响因素的影响程度,并依据影响因素的中心度和原因度识别出5个关键影响因素即政策目标定位、政策认同程度、执行管理机制、协同治理机制、部门利益诉求。采用ISM法将影响因素系统的层次结构划分为5个层级,其中根源层位于L5-L4层,包含6个影响因素;中间层位于L3-L2层,包含6个影响因素;表象层位于L1层,包含9个影响因素。最后运用MICMAC法剖析各影响因素的驱动与依赖关系,将其划分为自治、依赖、关联、驱动4个集群,进一步明确各因素的属性特征,以期为提高校园足球政策执行效果提供决策依据。

To understand the different importance of the factors affecting the implementation of school football policy and their interrelationship is of great significance for clarifying and removing the obstacles to school football policy implementation.A set of 21 factors regarding 6 dimensions was constructed on the basis of documentary analysis and Delphi method,and the DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretive Structure Modeling-Matriced Impacts Corises-multiplcation Appliance Classement)method was adopted to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting school football policy implementation based on systematic analysis.The DEMATEL method was used to investigate the influence of each factor,and five key factors(policy target,policy recognition,implementation management mechanism,collaborative governance mechanism,and department interest)were identified according to the centrality degree and cause degree.The ISM analysis was used to divide the influencing factor system into five levels,where six root layer factors belong to L5 and L4,six intermediate layer factors to L3 and L2,and nine consequential layer factors to L1.Finally,the MICMAC method was applied to explore the drive and dependency between the influencing factors,which were divided into four groups of autonomy,dependency,association,and drive.The study further clarified the characteristics of each factor,in order to provide a scientific basis for decision making to improve the implementation of school football policy.