区域科技人才开发效率测度与影响因素研究——基于EBM-ML-Tobit模型

A Study of the Measurement and Influencing Factors of the Development Efficiency of the Regional Sci-tech Talents Based on the EBM-ML-Tobit Model

科技是第一生产力,人才是第一资源,科技人才是国家和区域发展的重要保证,为测度我国典型区域科技人才的发展,以京津冀地区、长江经济带、黄河经济带三大经济带的区域科技人才开发效率为研究对象,运用EBM-ML模型对2007—2020年三个经济带的科技人才开发效率进行测算和动态分析,采用Tobit模型进行影响因素实证分析。结果表明:三个区域人才开发效率均处于较高水平,其中京津冀地区>长江经济带>黄河经济带,区域科技人才开发动态效率的提升与综合技术效率、技术进步的变化密切相关;人才开发效率较低的地区提升速度较快,存在落后者对先进者的“追赶效应”,各地区发展趋势趋同;Tobit回归分析结果表明,三大经济带的关键性驱动因素为政府资助强度,除此之外,教育水平、产业结构对于区域科技人才的开发效率提高也有重要的作用,因此政府应当加大资助强度,提升区域教育水平,促进产业结构升级,进而提高区域人才开发效率。

Science and technology is the first productive force,and the talented is the first resource.Assessing the efficiency of the regional talent development and analyzing the actual talent development is important to improve the local science and technology.Taking the efficiency of the regional sci-tech talent development of the three economic belts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Yellow River Economic Belt as the research object,this paper innovatively uses the EBM-ML model to measure and dynamically analyze the efficiency of the three economic belts from 2007 to 2020,which has effectively solved the problem of the loss ratio and improved the accuracy of measurement.It adopts the convergence analysis and the Tobit model to empirically analyze the influencing factors for exploring the factors affecting the efficiency of the regional talent development.The results show that in terms of the comprehensive efficiency of the regional sci-tech talent development,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region>the Yangtze River Economic Belt>the Yellow River Economic Belt are all at a relatively high level.The dynamic efficiency of the regional sci-tech talent development is closely related to the changes of comprehensive technical efficiency and technological progress.When the comprehensive technical efficiency rises,the technological gap falls,which in turn makes the dynamic efficiency of talent development rise.When the comprehensive technical efficiency falls,the technological gap rises,and the dynamic efficiency of talent development decreases,so the increase of technological gap and the decrease of efficiency slow down the rise of the efficiency of talent development.In terms of absolute convergence,there is a“catch-up effect”of the laggards following the advanced in the three regions,mainly due to the rapid development of technology.Finally,the Tobit regression analysis concludes that the key driver of the three economic zones is the intensity of the government funding,while the education level and industrial structure also play an important role in improving the efficiency of the regional sci-tech talent development.