经济增长与结构变化对亚洲国家碳排放与空气污染物排放的影响——基于KAYA、LMDI与SDA分解的驱动力分析

Impact of Economic Growth and Structural Change on Carbon and Air Pollutant Emissions in Asian Countries:Analysis on Driving Force Based on KAYA,LMDI,and SDA Decomposition Method

为考察21世纪以来亚洲不同国家和地区碳排放与空气污染物排放的驱动因素,尤其是社会经济发展和结构转型引起的经济体量和结构变化对各国排放的影响,论文使用两类分解研究方法,分析了中国、印度、日本等9个亚洲国家和地区2004—2014年碳排放与空气污染物排放的主要驱动因素,定量识别了各因素对排放量变化的绝对与相对贡献。在经济结构因素方面,首先基于KAYA和LMDI分解法初步分析了经济结构可能的贡献大小,并进一步基于SDA分解法具体考察了GDP部门产出结构比例的影响,以及GDP中投资、消费、出口占比及其结构对排放的分别影响。研究发现,经济规模增长是亚洲各个发展中国家排放量上升最重要的驱动力;同时,排放系数的下降对绝大部分亚洲地区排放量影响也很大。与此二者相比,经济结构变化对于各国排放量变化的影响较小,约小一个数量级,这也意味着各国在经济结构方面可能尚有较大的减排潜力。

Based on integration of two decomposition analysis methods,this study investigated the driving forces of carbon and air pollutant emissions in Asia countries after entering in the 21st century,especially the change of economic volume and economic structure caused by socio-economic development and structural transformation.By applying KAYA decomposition with LMDI analysis,as well as SDA decomposition,this study quantitatively analyzed the absolute and relative contributions of different emission driving factors from 2004 to 2014 in 9 Asian countries and regions including China,India,and Japan,and identified the major factors that drove the change of emissions during this period.For economic structure factors,this study first preliminarily analyzed the possible contribution of economic structure based on the KAYA and LMDI decomposition methods.Then,with SDA decomposition analysis,this study investigated more closely into the impact of the sectoral structure of GDP,as well as the proportions and structures of investment,consumption and export on emissions.Results show that economic growth was the dominant driver of rising emissions in the studied Asian countries and period.At the same time,the reduction of emission factors also had a great impact on emissions in most regions.Compared with the above two factors,the impact of economic structure change on emissions were found to be smaller with about an order of magnitude,which implied that these countries may have great potential of emission reduction from economic structure change yet to be realized.