中国数字产业的宏观经济效应分析:基于投入产出视角

Analysis of Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Digital Industry:Based on Input-Output Perspective

对数字产业合理定位是释放数字产业经济效应,驱动产业数字化转型的重要前提。通过编制2010—2020年的中国数字产业投入产出表,在非竞争型投入产出模型框架下,利用结构分解技术测算中国数字产业与其他产业的关联效应,并利用最终需求诱发系数测算数字产业与消费、投资等最终需求关联的数量特征。研究发现:第一,中国数字产业发展主要依赖国内经济循环,而国内经济循环中又以产业间循环为主导,在产业间循环中,溢出效应远高于反馈效应。第二,数字产业内部的产业关联效应具有明显的异质性。数字产品制造业自循环能力较强且产业间关联性也高,具有“承上启下”的行业特征。数字产品服务业自循环能力较差,且对其他产业的关联影响较微弱,行业发展滞后。数字技术应用业与数字要素驱动业行业成长性较差,但产业关联特征显著。第三,数字产业增加值主要来自投资和出口的诱发作用,随着时间推移,数字产业对投资的扩张效应更加敏感,由出口依赖型逐渐转变为投资依赖型。研究结果对于有效识别驱动经济发展的关键数字产业,理解双循环新发展格局下数字经济增长动力以及产业间的关联特征提供重要依据。

Reasonable positioning of the digital industry is an important prerequisite for releasing the economic effects of the digital industry and driving the digital transformation of the industry.By compiling the input-output table of China’s digital industry from 2010 to 2020,under the framework of the non-competitive input-output model,the structural decomposition technology is used to measure the industrial correlation effect of China’s digital industry,and the final demand induction coefficient is used to measure the quantitative characteristics of the digital industry related to final demand such as consumption,investment,and export.The research found:First,the development of China’s digital industry mainly depends on the domestic economic cycle,and the domestic economic cycle is dominated by the inter-industry cycle,and in the inter-industry cycle,the spillover effect is much higher than the feedback effect;Second,the industrial correlation effect within the digital industry is obviously heterogeneous.The digital product manufacturing industry has strong self-circulation ability and high inter-industry correlation,and has the industry characteristics of“connecting the previous and the next”.The self-circulation ability of the digital product service industry is poor,and the impact on other industries is weak,the development of the industry lags behind.The digital technology application industry and the digital factor-driven industry have poor growth,but the industry correlation characteristics are significant.Third,the added value of the digital industry mainly comes from the induced effect of investment and exports,and as time goes by,the digital industry is more sensitive to the expansion effect of investment,and gradually changes from export-dependent to an investment-dependent.This study provides an important basis for effectively identifying the key digital industries driving economic development,and understanding the growth drivers of the digital economy and the correlation characteristics between industries under the new dual-cycle development pattern.