基于概率预测的电-热综合能源系统灵活性聚合与优化调度

Flexibility Aggregation and Optimal Dispatching of Integrated Electricity-Heat Energy System Based on Probabilistic Forecasting

区域电-热综合能源系统源网荷侧具有多种灵活性资源,充分运用其调节能力可有效应对光伏出力波动对系统运行的影响。针对高比例光伏接入的区域电-热综合能源系统,提出基于概率预测的电-热综合能源系统灵活性聚合与优化调度方法。首先,基于光伏发电功率非参数概率预测结果,结合Copula函数抽样生成具有时间相关性的光伏出力场景;其次,采用自适应鲁棒优化算法聚合热网灵活性资源,以精确量化热网对电网的最大功率支撑范围,实现热电调度解耦;然后,基于光伏出力典型场景和热网功率最大灵活运行区间,建立考虑运行灵活性不足风险的系统随机优化运行模型,并通过求解该模型得到区域电-热综合能源系统联合调度策略;最后,通过算例分析验证了所提电-热综合能源系统灵活性聚合与优化方法的有效性。

There are a variety of flexible resources on the source,grid and load sides of the regional integrated electricity-heat energy system,and the full use of the adjustment ability can effectively deal with the influence of photovoltaic output fluctuation on the system operation.A flexibility aggregation and optimal dispatching method of integrated electricity-heat energy system based on probabilistic forecasting is proposed for the regional integrated electricity-heat energy system with high proportion of photovoltaic access.Firstly,based on the non-parametric probabilistic prediction results of photovoltaic power,a time-dependent photovoltaic output scenario is generated by sampling with Copula function.Secondly,the adaptive robust optimization algorithm is used to aggregate the flexibility resources of the heat network to accurately quantify the maximum power support range of the heat network to the power grid,and realize the decoupling of combined heat and power dispatching.Then,based on the typical photovoltaic output scenario and the maximum flexible operation interval of the power of the heat network,the system stochastic optimization operation model considering the risk of insufficient operation flexibility is established,and the joint dispatching strategy of the regional integrated electricity-heat energy system is obtained by solving the model.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed flexibility aggregation and optimization method for the integrated electricity-heat energy system is verified by the case analysis.