雅安地震和东北洪涝对肇庆市入境旅游人数的影响

The Influence of Ya'an Earthquake and Northeast Flood on the Number of Inbound Tourists in Zhaoqing City

2013年的雅安地震和东北洪涝事件对肇庆市入境旅游的影响非常大。本文借助突发事件后旅游者的心理发展变化曲线,利用双变量ARIMA模型来研究2013年的雅安地震和东北洪涝对肇庆市入境旅游人数的影响。借鉴同类事件旅游者心理恢复情况和肇庆入境旅游发展实际情况,笔者分别讨论了恢复期分别为6个月、9个月和12个月的时间内,雅安地震和东北洪涝对肇庆市入境旅游人数的影响。当恢复期为6个月时,肇庆市入境旅游人数同比增长率平均降幅为92.50%,入境旅游人数共减少0.98万人次;当恢复期为9个月时,肇庆市入境旅游人数同比增长率平均降幅为84.03%,入境旅游人数共减少13.53万人次;当恢复期为12个月时,肇庆市入境旅游人数同比增长率平均降幅为78.18%,入境旅游人数共减少21.28万人次。

The Ya'an earthquake and the flood in the Northeast of China in 2013 have a great influence on the inbound tourism in Zhaoqing City.With the help of the psychological development curve of tourists after emergencies,a two-variable ARIMA model was used to study the influence of Ya'an earthquake and northeast flood on the number of inbound tourists in Zhaoqing City in 2013.Drawing on the psychological recovery of tourism in similar events and the actual situation of tourism development in Zhaoqing,the author discusses the influence of Ya'an earthquake and northeast flood on the number of inbound tourists in Zhaoqing City within the recovery period of 6 months,9 months and 12 months respectively.When the recovery period is six months,The average year-on-year growth rate of inbound tourism in Zhaoqing fell by 92.50%,with the number decreased by 980,0;When the recovery period is nine months,The average year-on-year growth rate of inbound tourism in Zhaoqing fell by 84.03%,with the number decreased by-1,353,000;When the recovery period is 12months,the average year-on-year growth rate of inbound tourism in Zhaoqing fell by 78.18%,with the number by 212,800.