黄海南部海域的极值波高推算

Calculation of extreme wave height in southern Yellow Sea

以黄海南部海域1979-2018年SWAN模型模拟的海浪后报数据为原始数据集,采用自动化法在原始数据集中提取独立的非热带气旋样本进行极值波高推算研究。选择年N大值法提取极值样本,匹配广义极值分布模型进行拟合,通过分析模型的拟合效果和外推有效波高的不确定性确定合理的N值范围,并采用阈值法的稳定阈值范围进行了验证。利用这种方法推算得到了黄海南部海域50、100、150、200 a重现期的极值波高,可为黄海南部海域海洋、海岸工程的设计施工提供参考。

The southern Yellow Sea is selected as the research area,and the hindcast of significant wave heights simulated by SWAN model during 1979-2018 are used as the initial database.The independent non-tropical cyclone samples are extracted from the original data set by the automated method to calculate the extreme wave height.The N largest maxima method is selected to extract the extreme sample and the generalized extreme value model is matched for fitting.By analyzing the model fitting results and the uncertainty of extrapolated effective wave height,a reasonable range of N value was determined and validated by the stable threshold range of the threshold method.By using this method,the estimated extreme wave heights of 50,100,150 and 200 a return periods in the southern Yellow Sea are obtained,which can provide reference for the design and construction of marine and coastal projects in the southern Yellow Sea.