西藏经济韧性的测度与分析

The Measurement and Analysis of Tibetan Economic Resilience

科学评估西藏经济韧性,对于推动西藏各个地市的经济韧性协调发展、缓解高质量发展的不平衡和不充分问题具有重要的现实意义。文章运用核心变量法科学测度了2008-2020年西藏各个地市的经济韧性,并使用shift-share分解法将西藏经济韧性分解为产业结构分量和产业竞争力分量,以此分析西藏各个地市间经济韧性差异的内在机制。研究结果显示:西藏整体的抵抗力较弱、恢复力较强,产业竞争力是其中的关键;西藏各个地市间的经济韧性存在较大差异,在抵抗期,稳健的产业结构是抵抗外部冲击的关键,在恢复期,产业竞争力是经济恢复的关键,第三产业的竞争力显著提升,但同时还需要有健康的产业结构配套。文章结合研究结果和西藏实情提出了相应的建议。

The scientific assessment of Tibet's economic resilience is of great practical significance for promoting coordinated development of economic resilience among various cities and regions in Tibet and alleviating the im⁃balance and inadequacy of high-quality economic development.The article uses the core variable method to sci⁃entifically measure the economic resilience of various cities and regions in Tibet from 2008 to 2020 and uses the Shift-Share decomposition method to decompose the economic resilience of Tibet into industrial structure compo⁃nents and industrial competitiveness components,to analyze the internal mechanism of economic resilience dif⁃ferences among different cities and regions in Tibet.It is found that the overall resistance of Tibet is weak while the overall recovery is strong,with industrial competitiveness being the key;There are great differences in the economic resilience of different cities and regions in Tibet.During the resistance period,a sound industrial struc⁃ture is the key to resist external shocks.During the recovery period,industrial competitiveness is the key to eco⁃nomic recovery.The competitiveness of the Tertiary sector of the economy has significantly improved,but at the same time,a healthy industrial structure is also required.Finally,relevant suggestions were proposed based on the results and the actual situation in Tibet.