SIF事故致因模型与DEMATEL方法在城市燃气安全管理中的应用

Application of SIF Accident Causation Model and DEMATEL Method in City Gas Safety Management

为解决传统燃气事故致因模型忽视安全信息重要性的缺陷,先利用SIF事故致因模型整合城市燃气运营与使用过程中的安全信息链,剖析复杂燃气系统中的安全信息流,并以此为框架识别和筛选城市燃气爆炸事故的影响因素;然后运用决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)方法定量分析燃气爆炸事故影响因素之间的相关关系,辨识关键性影响因素;最后选取湖北十堰“6·13”燃气爆炸事故作为分析案例,利用SIF事故致因模型与DEMATEL方法对该起城市燃气爆炸事故的影响因素进行分析,并提出具体的安全管理措施。结果表明:该事故致因模型有3个层级、6个责任主体和16项影响因素,其中5项影响因素是该城市燃气爆炸事故的关键性影响因素;保证必要安全信息充分、防范安全欺骗行为、预防安全信息链失效是保障城市燃气安全的有效途径。

In order to solve the shortcomings of the traditional gas accident causation model that ignores the importance of safety information,in this paper the SIF accident causation model was used to integrate the safety information chain in the process of city gas operation and use,analyze the safety information flow in complex gas systems,and based on this to identify and screen the influencing factors that cause city gas explosion accidents.The decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method was used to quantitatively analyze the correlation between the influencing factors of gas explosion accidents and identify key influencing factors.Finally,the“6·13”gas explosion accident in Shiyan,Hubei Province,was selected as a case study to analyze the factors affecting the cause of city gas explosion accidents and to propose specific safety management measures based on the SIF accident causation model and the DEMATEL method.The results show that the accident model has 3 levels,6 responsibility subjects and 16 influencing factors,of which 5 influencing factors are the key ones of the gas explosion accident.Ensuring sufficient necessary safety information,preventing safety deception and protecting safety information chain failure are effective ways to ensure city gas safety.