缺环跃进与全链逐进:技术追赶的路径抉择——以民国时期的飞机研制为例

Catch up in Some Links or All Links:the Choice of Catch-up Path in the Field of Technology——Taking the aircraft development in the Republic of China as an example

全链逐进和缺环跃进的新理论,能够覆盖已有的追赶理论并使之简化。新理论应用于航空技术领域,导出了关于飞机研制的技术追赶理论的次级理论。全链逐进为“概念翼型—风洞—成熟翼型—飞机”,缺环跃进是“翼型理论—飞机”。这个次级理论揭示了风洞对于飞机翼型发展的决定性作用。根据次级理论探析了民国时期飞机研制路径的抉择问题,限于风洞建设的滞后与发展不顺利,同时因航空教育发展、人才储备以及政策引导的影响,缺环跃进始终居于主导地位,全链逐进被边缘化,未能掌握飞机研制的核心技术,失去了早期的机会窗口。历史和现实表明,全链逐进是适合中国的科技发展之路。

This article proposes new technology catch-up theories,such as catch-up in some links or all links,which can cover and simplify existing catch-up theories.Secondary theories have been derived regarding the technological catch-up theory of aircraft development.The catch-up in all links is“conceptual airfoil-wind tunnel-mature airfoil-aircraft”,while the catch-up in some links is“airfoil theory-aircraft”.This secondary theory reveals the critical role of wind tunnels in the development of aircraft airfoils.The choice of aircraft development path during the Republic of China period was analyzed.Due to the lag and uneven development of wind tunnel construction,as well as the influence of aviation education development,talent reserves,and policy guidance,the catch-up in all links has always been dominant,and the catch-up in some links has been marginalized,failing to master the core technology of aircraft development and losing the early window of opportunity.History and reality demonstrate that catching up in all links is a suitable path for China’s technological development.