基于abcd和Budyko模型的佳芦河干湿季径流变化归因分析

Attribution analysis of dry and wet season runoff changes in the Jialu River based on abcd model and Budyko model

河川径流变化受到人类活动和气候变化影响,探究其主要影响因素与影响过程是当前学科研究的热点问题之一。本文以陕北黄土高原区佳芦河为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall线性回归法对干、湿季水文气象要素进行趋势分析;采用滑动F检验法、滑动T检验法和Lee-Heghinian检验法等进行径流变异性分析;采用abcd模型与基于扩展的Budyko模型的季尺度垂直分解法进行径流变化影响因素量化分析。结果表明:佳芦河流域干季和湿季降水均有不显著上升趋势,气温均呈显著上升,潜在蒸散发干季显著上升、湿季不显著上升,而干湿两季径流都具有显著下降趋势。干季和湿季径流序列分别在1972年和1984年发生突变。人类活动是佳芦河流域干季和湿季径流减少的主要原因,人类活动和气候变化对干季径流的影响分别为减少2.2 mm月和增加0.07 mm月,对湿季径流序列的影响分别为减少7.84 mm月和增加0.92 mm月。模型模拟效果较好,适用于佳芦河流域径流变化研究。

The change of river runoff is affected by human activities and climate change.It has become a hot topic to explore the main influencing factors and influencing process of runoff change.The paper takes the Jialu River as the research object.The Mann-Kendall and linear regression method are used to analyze the trend of hydro-meteorological elements.The double cumulative curves of precipitation and runoff,the sliding F-rank test,the sliding T-rank test and the Lee-Heghinian test are used to analyze the runoff variability.The quantitative analysis of seasonal scale was carried out using the abcd model and the extended Budyko model-based vertical decomposition method.The results show that the precipitation in the dry season and the wet season in the Jialu River Basin presents an insignificant upward trend,while the temperature has a significant increase.The potential evapotranspiration increases significantly in the dry season and does not increase significantly in the wet season.The runoff in both dry and wet seasons has a significant downward trend.The abrupt changes of runoff series occurred in dry season in 1972 and wet season in 1984.The model used in this paper has good simulation effect and is suitable for the study of runoff change in this basin.Human activities are the main reason for the decline in runoff in the dry and wet seasons in the Jialu River Basin.The impacts of human activities and climate change on dry season runoff decrease by 2.2 mm month and increase by 0.07 mm month,respectively,and the impacts on wet season runoff sequences decrease by 7.84 mm month and increase by 0.92 mm month,respectively.