矿工不安全行为的5M传播模型研究

Research on 5M propagation model for unsafe behavior of miners

为研究矿工间不安全行为的传播机制并有效控制矿工的不安全行为,基于传播动力学理论,构建矿工不安全行为5M(M_(1)-M_(2)-M_(3)-M_(4)-M_(5))传播模型。设定矿工不安全行为的传播途径、时间周期、初始参数等,模拟不同矿工状态之间的动态转化关系;研究不同转化率对矿工不安全行为传播过程的影响和系统稳态下的最优转化率。研究结果表明:5M传播模型能够客观反映矿工不安全行为的传播过程,恶化率、整改率和遗忘率的提高可导致不安全行为的传播,提高管控率、矫正率和醒悟率可抑制不安全行为的传播,最终得到系统稳态下的最优转化率。研究结果可为预测和控制矿工间不安全行为的传播提供1种新的思路。

In order to study the propagation mechanism of unsafe behavior among miners and effectively control the unsafe behavior of miners,a 5M(M_(1)-M_(2)-M_(3)-M_(4)-M_(5))propagation model of unsafe behavior of miners was constructed based on the propagation dynamics theory.The propagation path,time period,and initial parameters of unsafe behavior of miners were set,and the dynamic transformation relationship between different miners’states was simulated.The influence of different conversion rates on the propagation process of unsafe behavior of miners and the optimal conversion rate under the system steady-state were studied.The results show that the 5M propagation model can objectively reflect the propagation process of unsafe behaviors of miners,increasing the deterioration rate,rectification rate and forgetting rate will lead to the propagation of unsafe behavior,and increasing the control rate,correction rate and awareness rate can inhibit the propagation of unsafe behavior,thus finally obtain the optimal conversion rate under system steady-state.The results can provide a new idea for predicting and controlling the propagation of unsafe behavior among miners.