我国沿海水域船舶碰撞事故形态特征分析

Analysis on morphological characteristics of ship collision accidents in Chinese coastal waters

为揭示我国沿海水域船舶碰撞事故形态特征,基于293份2013—2021年我国沿海水域船舶碰撞事故调查报告,运用贝叶斯网络分析方法,探讨船舶碰撞事故形态与事故时间、事故地点、事故环境和事故后果之间的关系。研究结果表明:我国沿海水域发生干货船与渔船碰撞事故的概率较高;我国沿海水域船舶碰撞事故多发生在夜间、沿海航路、通航环境复杂情景下,多造成沉船、人员死亡/失踪的事故后果;不同的事故季节、事故时段、事故地点、风级、能见度、通航环境下船舶碰撞事故形态的分布存在差异;与其他船舶碰撞事故形态相比,干货船与渔船碰撞导致人员死亡/失踪、沉船的概率较高,而导致船舶溢油的概率较低;强风是对船舶碰撞事故形态敏感性较高的特征变量。研究结果可为我国沿海水域船舶碰撞事故治理提供理论参考。

In order to reveal the morphological characteristics of ship collision accidents in Chinese coastal waters,based on 293 investigation reports on collision accidents in Chinese coastal waters from 2013 to 2021,the Bayesian network analysis method was used to analyze the relationship between the morphology of ship collision accidents and the accident time,accident location,accident environment,and accident consequence.The results show that the probability of collision accidents between dry cargo ship and fishing ship in Chinese coastal waters is the highest.The ship collision accidents in Chinese coastal waters mostly occur under the scenarios of night,coastal routes,and complex navigational environment,and mostly cause the consequences of death/disappearance of personnel,and shipwrecks.There are differences in the distribution on the morphology of ship collision accidents under different accident seasons,accident periods,accident locations,wind levels,visibility,and navigation environments.Compared with other morphology of ship collision accidents,due to the collision between dry cargo ship and fishing ship,the probability of death/disappearance of personnel and shipwreck is higher,while that of ship’s oil spill is lower.The strong wind is the most sensitive characteristic variable on the morphology of ship collision accidents.The research results can provide theoretical reference for the governance of ship collision accidents in Chinese coastal waters.