基于实物期权的高速铁路建设时机分析

Analysis of the Timing of High-speed Railway Construction Based on Real Options

目的:为高铁项目建设时机的选择提供理论依据和参考,以提高其投资决策的可靠性,降低投资风险。方法:将实物期权引入到高铁项目建设时机的考证过程;通过识别高铁项目投资决策中的期权类型,以延迟期权为重点,对投资过程涉及的建设成本、客流量和旅客时间节省价值等主要不确定性因素进行建模分析;利用Crystal Ball软件中的OptQuest优化工具实现蒙特卡洛模拟,得出净现值最大化条件下的高铁项目最佳建设时机。以我国西部高铁项目A为例进行了实证分析。结果及结论:高铁项目具有建设难度大、建设期长、投资额巨大的特点,成本与收益随时间增加存在极大的不确定性,基于实物期权的高铁项目建设时机分析方法提供了一种衡量和估计这种不确定性的框架。根据该分析方法求解得出,高铁项目A推迟18年建设将会达到最优净现值。

Objective:The purpose of the study is to provide theoretical basis and reference for the selection of high-speed railway project construction timing,to improve the reliability of investment decision-making and reduce investment risks.Method:The real options in the verification process of timing selection for high-speed railway project construction are introduced.By identifying the types of options involved in investment decision-making for high-speed railway projects,with a focus on the option of deferral,a modeling and analysis is conducted on major uncertainties such as construction costs,passenger flows,and passenger time saving values involved in the investment process.The Monte Carlo simulation is realized with the OptQuest optimization tool in the Crystal Ball software,to determine the optimal timing for high-speed railway project construction under the condition of maximizing net present value.An empirical analysis is conducted using the example of the high-speed railway project A in western China.Result&Conclusion:The high-speed rail project features great construction difficulty,long construction period,and huge investment,with significant uncertainty in cost and return increase over time.The method of analyzing the construction timing of the high-speed rail project based on real options provides a framework for assessing and estimating such uncertainty.According to this analysis method,delaying the construction of project A by 18 years will reach the optimal net present value.