县域经济发展:中心城市的虹吸或溢出效应——兼论广东县域经济发展滞后的原因

County Economy Development:Siphoning or Spillover Effects of Central Cities——An Analysis of the Lagging Development of County Economy in Guangdong

振兴县域经济是实现城乡区域协调发展的重要抓手。一直以来,关于大城市会如何影响县域经济发展存在诸多争论。本文利用2000—2020年中国县域和主要大城市数据进行定量分析,结果表明:(1)中心城市的经济增长能够显著促进县域经济增长,中心城市对县域经济总体上表现为溢出效应。(2)中心城市对县域经济的溢出效应随空间距离的拉大而减弱,当空间距离超过一定程度时,中心城市对县域经济则表现为虹吸效应。(3)中心城市对县域经济的溢出效应随着两者初始经济差距的拉大而不断减弱。(4)在发展初期,中心城市更可能对周边县域产生虹吸效应,而当发展到一定程度后,中心城市对周边县域转变为溢出效应,对边远县域则产生虹吸效应。上述研究结论对于广东县域经济发展的滞后现象具有良好的解释力。因此,大城市发展和县域经济增长之间并不必然存在冲突关系,关键取决于大城市及城市体系是否合理布局。

Revitalizing county economy is a crucial approach to achieving coordinated regional development and narrowing regional income gaps.There has been much debate on how the development of large cities affects the growth of county economies.This article utilizes quantitative analysis based on national county and major city data from 2000 to 2020.The results show:firstly,the growth of center cities’economies significantly promote the growth of county economies,demonstrating an overall spillover effect of center cities’economies on county economies.Secondly,the spillover effect of center cities’economies on county economies weakens as the spatial distance increases.When the spatial distance exceeds a certain threshold,center cities’economies exhibit a suction effect on county economies.Thirdly,the spillover effect of center cities’economic development on county economies continuously weakens as the initial economic gap between them widens.Additionally,in the early stages of center cities development,a suction effect of center cities is more likely to be exerted on surrounding counties.However,as cities’economies development reaches a certain level,it transforms into a spillover effect on neighboring counties while still exerting a suction effect on more remote counties.Above findings provide an explanatory framework for the phenomenon of delayed development in Guangdong’s county economy.This article argues that the development of large cities is not inherently contradictory to the growth of county economies;the key lies in the distribution of center cities.