劳动力市场一体化对老龄人口集聚的影响——基于调节效应与中介效应的检验

The Influence of the Integration of Labor Market on the Agglomeration of Elderly People:Based on the Moderating Effects and Mediating Effects

在我国社会保障事业高质量发展和统一大市场建设的关键时期,促进人口老龄化风险由空间集聚向区域分担转变,对于提升社会公平正义、促进人口均衡发展具有重要意义。研究发现:劳动力市场一体化水平的提高会加剧我国老龄人口的集聚效应;空间区域异质性表明,在东北地区,劳动力市场一体化对老龄人口的集聚效应更加明显。此外,对老龄人口集聚方式进行分类回归分析发现:劳动力市场一体化虽然能够有效缓解城市老龄人口集聚,但是会强化老龄人口在省份维度的集聚;社会保障支出在缓解老龄人口集聚的过程中产生了逆向调节作用;地区经济发展差距在劳动力市场一体化强化老龄人口集聚的过程中发挥着中介作用。研究结果对于各地区充分识别人口老龄化风险空间集聚水平、实现人口老龄化风险分担具有重要参考价值。

In the critical period of China's high-quality development of social security and the construction of a unified large market,promoting the shift from spatial agglomeration to regional sharing of the population aging is of great significance in enhancing social justice and promoting balanced population development.The study finds that the increase in the level of labor market integration will intensify the agglomeration effect of China's population aging;the spatial regional heterogeneity indicates that the agglomeration effect of labor market integration on the population aging is more obvious in the Northeast region;moreover,a categorical regression analysis on the way of agglomeration of elderly people reveals that the integration of the labor market can effectively alleviate the agglomeration of elderly people in the cities,but it will intensify the agglomeration of elderly people in the province.Social security expenditures have an inverse regulatory effect in reducing the agglomeration of elderly people,and regional economic development gaps play a mediating role in the process of labor market integration in strengthening the agglomeration of elderly people.The results of the study have important reference value for regions to fully identify the level of spatial agglomeration of aging risk and realize aging risk sharing.