现金流视角下房地产企业财务风险评价与应对研究

Research on Financial Risk Evaluation and Response of Real Estate Enterprises from the Perspective of Cash Flow

党的二十大提出“加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度”,国家加强了对房地产行业的宏观调控。房地产行业具有资金密集和资金回收期长等特征,受国家宏观调控及信贷政策影响较大,现金流失控带来的财务风险是目前房地产企业面临的主要风险之一。基于此,以房地产企业为研究对象,从现金流结构、流速、质量等方面对我国房地产企业现金流现状进行分析,同时运用因子分析法,通过反映经营活动、筹资活动、投资活动财务风险的九个相关财务指标,构建现金流视角下房地产企业财务风险评价体系,并据以评价房地产企业在不同现金流活动中可能存在的财务风险。研究发现:我国多数房地产企业存在较高的经营风险、流动性风险、筹资风险和投资风险,房地产企业整体财务风险偏高。为有效应对各类风险,房地产企业应加强资金管控,提升市场营销能力,降低经营风险;培育多方位的融资渠道,分散筹资风险;优化投资决策,加强成本控制,规避投资风险。

The Party's 20th National Congress proposed to"accelerate the establishment of a housing system featuring multi-subject supply,multi-channel support,and simultaneous rental and purchase",and the state strengthened macro-control over the real estate industry.The real estate industry has the characteristics of capital intensive and long payback period,which is greatly affected by the national macro-control and credit policies.The financial risk caused by cash loss control is one of the main risks faced by real estate enterprises at present.Based on this,taking real estate enterprises as the research object,the current situation of cash flow of real estate enterprises in China is analyzed from the aspects of cash flow structure,flow rate,quality and so on.At the same time,factor analysis is applied to construct the financial risk evaluation system of real estate enterprises from the perspective of cash flow through nine relevant financial indicators reflecting the financial risk of operating activities,financing activities and investment activities.It also evaluates the financial risks that real estate enterprises may have in different cash flow activities.It is found that most real estate enterprises in China have high operating risk,liquidity risk,financing risk and investment risk,and the overall financial risk of real estate enterprises is high.In order to effectively deal with various risks,real estate enterprises should strengthen capital control,enhance marketing ability,and reduce business risks;cultivate multi-directional financing channels and diversify financing risks;optimize investment decision,strengthen cost control and avoid investment risks.