中国对主要“一带一路”沿线国家农产品出口潜力估计——以中美贸易摩擦中被加征关税农产品为例

Examining China's agricultural export potential to major“the Belt and Road”countries——taking agricultural products subject to additional tariffs during Sino-US trade friction as an example

为应对中美贸易摩擦的冲击,充分发掘中国农产品出口潜力,优化中国农产品出口格局,基于1996-2019年数据,以中美贸易摩擦中被加征关税的农产品为研究对象,利用弹性分析法而非传统的贸易潜力估计方法,估计了该部分农产品对36个主要“一带一路”沿线国家的短期出口潜力。研究认为,在36个沿线国家市场上,中国被加征关税农产品对出口竞争国的同类产品具有一定替代能力,尤其在意大利、韩国、越南、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、马来西亚、俄罗斯市场上的替代能力更强;36个沿线国家对来自中国的被加征关税农产品的进口需求均属于富有弹性;中国被加征关税农产品出口潜力较大的国家集中于东南亚地区。研究表明,中国应着力降低农产品的生产和贸易成本、增加农产品价格调整空间,加强与沿线国家贸易便利化合作,尤其是借助RCEP促进中国-东盟农产品贸易深入发展,带动中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口增加,实现中国农产品出口贸易格局优化。

Amidst the impact of the Sino-US trade friction,this study delves into unleashing China's agricultural export potential and refining the countries'agricultural export landscape.Leveraging data from 1996 to 2019,our focus centers on agricultural goods affected by heightened tariffs during the Sino-US trade friction.Departing from conventional trade potential estimations,this paper employs elasticity analysis to assess the short-term export potential of these goods across 36 countries along the“the Belt and Road”.The findings advocate that China's agricultural products,under increased tariffs,hold substantial potential to replace analogous goods from competitor countries,particularly in markets like Italy,South Korea,Vietnam,Indonesia,the Philippines,Malaysia,and Russia.Notably,the demand elasticity across these 36 countries is manifested in the import of Chinese agricultural products affected by added tariffs,with Southeast Asia emerging as a focal point for potential exports.The study indicates for China to concentrate on lowering production and trade expenses in the agricultural sector,creating flexibility in pricing,and enhancing trade collaboration with countries along the route,and specifically,leveraging the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)to facilitate deeper trade ties between China and ASEAN countries,thereby bolstering China's export to the“the Belt and Road”countries and optimizing its agricultural export trade pattern.