博斯腾湖流域径流变化及年内分配特征

Changes of Runoff in Bosten Lake Basin and Annual Distribution Characteristics

以博斯腾湖流域两大主要入湖源流——开都河和黄水沟为例,基于新疆塔里木河流域管理局1956—2021年逐月实测径流量资料,采用集中度、线性回归、Mann-Kendall秩次检验法等方法,研究开都河和黄水沟径流变化及年内分配特征。结果表明:开都河和黄水沟年径流量总体呈增加趋势,年径流量整体出现“减少—增加—减少”的阶段性变化;开都河和黄水沟年径流量分别在1996、1994年发生突变,突变后径流量年际变率大,年平均径流量比突变前高;逐月径流量整体呈增加趋势,冬季月径流量增加趋势显著;全年各月径流分布呈单峰型,年内径流量主要集中在夏季,径流量峰值均出现在7月;突变后各月平均径流量均高于突变前和多年平均值;各项指标特征值表明,开都河年内径流量分配有均匀发展态势,黄水沟年内径流量依然集中;开都河径流量主要受降水和气温共同影响,黄水沟径流量主要受气温变化的影响。

Based on the monthly measured runoff data of Kaidu River and Huangshui Gulley of Tarim River Basin Administration from 1956 to 2021,the variation and annual distribution of runoff in Kaidu River and Huangshui Gulley are studied by the methods of concentration,linear regression,and Mann-Kendall rank test.The results show that the annual runoff of the Kaidu River and the Huangshui Gulley shows an increasing trend,and the annual runoff shows a gradual change of“decreasing,increasing,and decreasing”.The annual runoff of Kaidu River and Huangshui Gulley had abrupt changes in 1996 and 1994,respectively.After abrupt changes,the annual average runoff was higher than that before abrupt changes.The monthly runoff shows an increasing trend,and the monthly runoff increases significantly in winter.The monthly runoff distribution is unimodal throughout the year,and the annual runoff is mainly concentrated in summer,with the peak runoff in July.The mean monthly runoff after the abrupt changes was higher than that before the abrupt changes and multi-year averages.The characteristic values of each index show that the annual runoff distribution of Kaidu River has a uniform development trend,while that of Huangshui Gulley is still concentrated.The runoff of Kaidu River is mainly affected by precipitation and temperature,and that of Huangshui Gulley is mainly affected by temperature change.