2023年华北、黄淮极端高温热浪事件气候特征及成因初探

Climate characteristics and causes of extreme heat events in North China and Huang-huai region in 2023

基于北京、天津、河北、山东、河南5省(直辖市)437个国家级气象站数据和美国气象环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)及美国国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)制作的日平均再分析数据,采用气候统计诊断方法,对2023年6—7月我国华北、黄淮高温天气的特点及其成因进行分析。结果表明,2023年6—7月华北、黄淮地区平均气温和平均最高气温均为1961年以来历史同期最高。北京、天津、河北、山东、河南5省(直辖市)的平均气温和平均最高气温均明显高于常年同期,其中北京市、天津市、河北省的平均气温和平均最高气温均为1961年以来历史同期最高。北京市、天津市和河北省的高温日数均为1961年以来历史同期最多。华北、黄淮地区有200个国家级气象观测站日最高气温达到或超过40℃;有126个国家级气象观测站日最高气温达极端事件监测标准,其中河北井陉、河南林州、北京汤河口等26个国家级气象观测站达到或突破历史极值。2023年6月21日至7月9日的华北、黄淮地区高温过程的综合强度,在近33年的中国历次区域性高温过程中排名第1。诊断分析表明,全球变暖是这次极端高温热浪事件发生的大背景,大气环流异常是高温持续且极端性突出的直接原因。

Based on the daily temperature data of 437 meteorological stations in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shandong and Henan provinces(municipalities directly under the central government)and global daily average reanalysis data produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR)of the United States,the characteristics of extreme heat events and its causes in China during June to July of 2023 in North China and Huanghuai region were analyzed using climate statistical diagnostic methods.The results showed that the average temperature and the mean maximum temperature in June and July 2023 in North China and Huang-huai were both the highest in the same period since complete meteorological observation records were available since 1961.The average temperature and the mean maximum temperature in the five provinces of Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shandong and Henan were significantly higher than normal,the average temperature and mean maximum temperature in Beijing,Hebei and Tianjin were the highest in the same period since 1961.The number of hot days in Beijing,Hebei and Tianjin was also the highest in the same period since 1961.There were 200 national meteorological stations in North China,Huanghuai where the daily maximum temperature reached or exceeded 40°C.The daily maximum temperature of 126 stations reached the monitoring standard of extreme events,among which 26 meteorological stations such as Jingxing in Hebei,Linzhou in Henan,and Tanghekou in Beijing have reached or exceeded historical extremes.The comprehensive intensity of high temperature processes in North China,and Huang-huai region from June 21 to July 9 in 2023 ranks first among all regional high temperature processes in China in the past 33 years.The analysis shows that global warming is the general background to the occurrence of extreme high temperature and that atmospheric circulation anomalies are the direct causes of the occurrence and extremes of high temperatures.