“一带一路”在东南亚的十年共建与高质量发展的方向

The Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia: A Decade of Joint Construction andthe Path for High-Quality Development

“一带一路”倡议提出十年来,中国与东南亚国家秉持共商共建共享原则,通过高层引领推动、签署合作框架、推动项目实施、完善政策措施、发挥平台作用,取得了丰硕的共建成果。东南亚地区的“五通指数”一直在所有“一带一路”沿线地区中名列前茅,示范引领作用突出,双方发展战略对接日益紧密,互联互通水平提升显著,经贸关系跨越式发展,新领域合作快速推进,人文交往渠道持续拓宽,为高质量共建“一带一路”提供了合作典范。东南亚国家均支持“一带一路”倡议,既有双方战略理念高度契合的原因,也是东南亚国家精英维护以“发展”为基础的政权合法性驱动的必然结果。当然,出于国家需求的不同以及对债务偿还能力、平衡外交、国内结构性治理弱点以及国内政治等因素的考量,东南亚国家对“一带一路”接受程度和形式各不相同。未来,双方可从深化既有共建成果、将各领域倡议落到实处、攻坚重点难点问题等三个方向努力,推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展。

In the decade since the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)was proposed,China and Southeast Asian countries have,by adhering to the principles of extensive consultation,joint construction and shared benefits,made great achievements through following top leaders’guidance,signing cooperation frameworks,pushing project implementation,refining and improving policy measures,and taking advantage of the platforms.Southeast Asia,which always scores the highest in the five-connectivity index as compared with other regions along the BRI,has been an exemplary role model for the joint construction of the BRI thanks to the growing convergence of the development strategies of the two sides,marked improvement in their infrastructure connectivity,phenomenal expansion in economic and trade relations,quick progress in emerging areas of cooperation,and the expansion of people-to-people and cultural exchanges.All countries in Southeast Asia choose to support the BRI not only because of the high compatibility of the two sides’development strategies,but also because of the desire of the Southeast Asian elites to maintain their political legitimacy that is based on“development”.However,the Southeast Asian countries’perceptions and policies toward the BRI vary due to such factors as different national needs and different calculations resulting from different debt repayment capacities,the need for balanced diplomacy,weaknesses in domestic governance,and domestic politics.In the future,the two sides can endeavor to promote the high-quality development of BRI in three directions:consolidating existing achievements,implementing initiatives in various fields,and tackling key and difficult issues.