环境规制对种养业协调发展空间格局的影响——基于县域尺度的分析

The Impact of Environmental Regulations on the Spatial Pattern of Coordinated Development of the Planting and Breeding Industry:An Analysis Based on County Scale

种养结合是中国农业发展的转型之路,识别县域尺度上种植业与养殖业的空间协调程度,并分析环境规制对种养业协调发展的影响对促进农业发展有重要意义。基于2001-2019年的统计数据,采用区域重心分析法、空间重心重叠性分析、协调度指数和计量经济模型等研究方法,系统分析了种植业与养殖业协调发展的空间格局以及环境规制对其的影响作用。研究结果表明,在研究期内,二者的生产重心基本分布在河南省境内,养殖业生产重心分布更为聚集,而种植业重心呈现出从南到北的布局,空间分布较为分散;二者的产业重心迁移方向在整体上大致相同,均呈现出向东北方向变化的趋势,但是由于种植业重心迁移速度更快,二者空间重叠性较弱,表现出一定的空间错位分布;在全国层面种养业协调发展在2016年及之前较为平衡,2016年后表现为养殖业产业聚集程度明显高于种植业,东部地区和西部地区表现出同样的特征,而中部地区的种植业聚集程度则高于养殖业;环境规制会抑制地区养殖业的生产,但同时显著促进了地区种养业协调发展。经济发达程度和地区人口也会对种养协调度产生显著影响。应当继续全面推进环境规制政策实施,促进种植业与养殖业的有机结合,实现农业结构优化布局和产业间协调发展。

Integrating planting and breeding is the transformation path for China’s agricultural development.Identify the spatial coordination degree of planting and breeding industry at county scale,and analyze the impact of environmental regulations on the coordinated development of planting and breeding industry are important for agricultural development.Based on the county-level statistical data of China from 2001 to 2019,this paper systematically analyzed the spatial pattern of the coordinated development of the planting and breeding industry and the impact of environmental regulations on it by using the methods of regional barycenter analysis,spatial barycenter overlap analysis,coordination index,and econometric model.The results show that during the study period,the production centers of the two industries were basically distributed in Henan province.The breeding production centers were more congregated,while the planting industry distribution was scattered from south to north.The migration direction of the industrial centers is roughly the same on the whole,showing a trend of change in the northeast direction.However,due to the faster migration speed of the planting industry center,the spatial overlap between the two is weak,showing a certain spatial dislocation distribution.At the national level,the coordinated development of the planting and breeding industry was relatively balanced in 2016 and before.After 2016,the aggregation degree of the breeding industry was significantly higher than that of the planting industry.The eastern and western regions showed the same characteristics,while the aggregation degree of the planting industry in the central region was higher than that of the breeding industry.Environmental regulation inhibits the production of the regional breeding industry,but at the same time significantly promotes the coordinated development of the regional breeding industry.The degree of economic development and regional population also have a significant impact on the coordination degree.We should continue to comprehensively promote the implementation of environmental regulation policies,promote the organic combination of the planting industry and breeding industry,and realize the optimal layout of agricultural structure and coordinated development among industries.