我国会展业对制造业转型升级的影响研究——基于数字技术和人力资本的中介效应

The influence of China's exhibition industry on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry—Based on the mesomeric effect of digital technology and human capital

党的十九大报告提出,我国正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期,这为我国制造业转型升级带来了新的机遇。因此,基于2011—2020年的时间序列数据,以数字技术和人力资本作为中介变量构建中介效应模型,采用逐步回归的方法来探究会展业对制造业转型升级的影响。研究发现:(1)会展业的发展会对制造业转型升级产生显著正向影响;(2)会展业的发展对数字技术和人力资本发展水平的提升均具有显著正向影响,并且数字技术和人力资本在推动制造业转型升级过程中均起着部分中介作用。该研究结果可为相关部门推进制造业转型升级提供思路借鉴。

According to the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China is in the key period of transforming the development mode,optimizing the economic structure,and transforming the growth momentum,which has brought new opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry.Based on the time series data from 2011 to 2020,digital technology and human capital were used as mediating variables to construct a mediating effect model,and a step-by-step regression method was adopted to explore the impact of the convention and exhibition industry on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.The findings are as follows:①The development of the convention and exhibition industry will have a significant positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry;②The development of the convention and exhibition industry has a significant positive impact on the improvement of the development level of digital technology and human capital,and both digital technology and human capital play a partial intermediary role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.The research results can provide ideas for relevant departments to promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.