基于引力模型的中国铁路空间经济效应研究

Research on the Spatial Economic Effects of Chinese Railways Based on the Gravity Model

如何更好地促使中国铁路在“双循环”新发展格局中注入经济新活力是一个重要的命题。本文采用引力模型作为空间权重矩阵,建立面板数据空间杜宾模型进行实证分析。发现在样本期内,中国的铁路建设在推动经济发展方面效果显著,不仅直接带动当地的经济发展,还可以通过与周边地区联动形成空间溢出效应,这种空间溢出效应在不同时期作用大小不同。另外,铁路网逐渐完善带来的劳动力外流会使得地区的经济受到一定程度的冲击,各地应择机适当出台人才引进战略以维持劳动力的质量与数量,促进地区经济发展。

How to better promote China's railways to inject new economic vitality into the new development pattern of“dual circulation”is an important proposition.This article uses the gravity model as the spatial weight matrix and establishes a panel data spatial Durbin model for empirical analysis.It was found that during the sample period,China's railway construction had a significant effect in promoting economic development,not only directly driving local economic development,but also forming a spatial spillover effect through linkage with surrounding areas.The magnitude of this spatial spillover effect varies in different periods.In addition,the labor outflow brought about by the gradual improvement of the railway network will have a certain degree of impact on the regional economy.Local governments should take the opportunity to introduce appropriate talent introduction strategies to maintain the quality and quantity of labor,and promote regional economic development.