东北冷涡影响下本溪温度和降水预报技术研究

Research on Temperature and Precipitation Forecast Technology in Benxi Area Under the Influence of Northeast Cold Vortex System

每年5—6月本溪地区受冷涡系统影响天气增多,多阵性降雨天气,冷涡系统带来的特殊天气也给本溪地区温度和降水预报带来了较大的难度,造成温度预报和降水预报质量不高。通过对2019年5月1—6月11日影响本溪地区的冷涡系统进行追踪,分析了冷涡的位置、强度等对本溪地区温度、降水的影响特征。同时,对数值预报产品进行了模式检验,以期为今后的预报提供有力的技术支撑,有效增强预报能力,提高预报质量。

Every year from May to June,the area affected by the cold vortex system in the Benxi area is increasing.The special weather caused by the cold vortex system also brings great difficulties to the temperature and precipitation forecast in the Benxi area,resulting in temperature prediction and precipitation forecast.The quality is not high.Through the tracking analysis of the cold vortex system affecting the Benxi area from May 1 to June 11,2019,analyzed the influence of the location and intensity of the cold vortex on the temperature and precipitation in the Benxi area.At the same time,the model test was carried out on the numerical forecast products,in order to provide strong technical support for future forecasting,effectively enhance the forecasting ability and improve the forecasting quality.