湘潭O3浓度变化与气象要素影响分析及预报

Analysis and Prediction of Changes in Ozone Concentration and Meteorological Factors in Xiangtan

利用2017—2021年湘潭O_(3)逐小时监测数据和气象数据,分析了湘潭O_(3)浓度变化、浓度超标状况及与气象要素之间的关系。结果表明:2017—2021年,湘潭O_(3)浓度分布呈北高南低趋势,但区域特征不十分明显。季节变化特征从高到低依次为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季。O_(3)浓度超标出现在4—11月,盛夏和秋季是O_(3)超标的主要时段,一般在10:00~21:00出现浓度超标,其中,12:00~17:00持续较高的超标率;湘潭O_(3)浓度超标日共分为6种天气形势,均压场型最多,占47.9%。通过对相关性较高的O_(3)影响因子进行多重线性回归,建立春、夏、秋、冬O_(3)浓度回归预报方程,利用2022年实况数据对方程预报结果进行检验,均有较好的预报效果。

Using hourly monitoring data and meteorological data of O_(3) in Xiangtan from 2017 to 2021,the changes in ozone concentration,concentration exceeding standards,and their relationship with meteorological factors in Xiangtan were analyzed.The results show that from 2017 to 2021,the distribution of O_(3) concentration in Xiangtan was high in the north and low in the south,but the regional characteristics were not very obvious.The seasonal variation characteristics from high to low were summer>autumn>spring>winter.The excessive concentration of O_(3) occurs from April to November,with midsummer and autumn being the main periods of O_(3) exceeding the standard.Generally,the concentration exceeding the standard occurs from 10:00 to 21:00,with a consistently high exceeding rate from 12:00 to 17:00;The days when the concentration of O_(3) in Xiangtan exceeds the standard can be divided into 6 weather situations,with the highest average pressure field type,accounting for 47.9%.By conducting multiple linear regression on O_(3) influencing factors with high correlation,a regression prediction equation for O_(3) concentration in spring,summer,autumn,and winter was established.The prediction results of the equation were tested using 2022 actual data,and all showed good prediction results.