明光艾草生产气象因子分析及服务方案

Meteorological Factor Analysis and Service Plan for the Production of Mingguang Mugwort

针对安徽明光艾草生产实际,归纳制定艾草发育期时序图;根据当地多年气象资料,分析艾草发育期气候特征;研究艾草主要气象致灾因子,以及“轻、中、重”等级指标,并采用加权综合评价法评估气象灾害风险。结果指出:夏发期和秋发期干旱、夏发期和秋发期高温、春发期和夏发期大风、春发期后期和夏发期暴雨、春发期初期低温为影响明光艾草生产的主要气象灾害,可分别以7—9月总降水量、7—9月日最高气温≥35℃日数、4—8月8级以上大风日数、5—8月日降水量≥50 mm日数、4月最低气温≤5℃日数区分气象灾害“轻、中、重”等级;经风险评估,无重度风险,春发期初期低温、春发期后期和夏发期暴雨、春发期和夏发期大风以及夏发期和秋发期干旱灾害指数分别为2.35、2.07、2.80、2.07,属中度风险;夏发期和秋发期高温,属轻度风险。在此基础上,结合走访调研,研究形成明光艾草周年气象服务方案,以进一步提升艾草气象服务的针对性和有效性。

Based on the actual production of Aicao in Mingguang,Anhui,a time series diagram of Aicao’s development period has been summarized and formulated;Analyze the climate characteristics during the development period of mugwort based on local meteorological data for many years;Study the main meteorological disaster factors and“light,medium,and heavy”level indicators of mugwort,and used the weighted comprehensive evaluation method for meteorological disaster risk assessment.The results showed that drought in summer and autumn,high temperature in summer and autumn,strong wind in spring and summer,rainstorm in late spring and summer,and low temperature in early spring were the main meteorological disasters affecting the production of wormwood The minimum temperature in April is≤5℃,and the number of days was used to distinguish the“light,medium,and severe”levels of meteorological disasters;According to the risk assessment,there was no serious risk.The low temperature in the early spring,the rainstorm in the late spring and summer,the strong wind in the spring and summer,and the drought disaster index in the summer and autumn are 2.35,2.07,2.80 and 2.07 respectively,which were moderate risks;High temperatures during the summer and autumn seasons are considered mild risks.On this basis,combined with visits and research,we will study and form an annual meteorological service plan for Mingguang mugwort,in order to further enhance the pertinence and effectiveness of mugwort meteorological services.