基于多智能体的城市内涝灾害受灾人口动态评估

Dynamic Assessment of Urban Waterlogging Disaster Affected Population based on Multi-agent Technology

将多智能体建模技术应用于城市内涝灾害受灾人口动态评估,可动态地监控受灾人口变化趋势。以长春市南关区为实证对象,应用多智能体建模技术,构建内涝灾害受灾人口动态评估模型,实现了受灾人口在内涝灾害前、中、后时期的全过程模拟。结果表明:内涝灾害随时间发展变化,受灾人口在低危险呈现升高—降低—升高—降低的变化趋势;受灾人口在中危险状态呈现升高—降低—升高—降低变化趋势,但比低危险状态变化幅度小;受灾人口在高危险状态呈现升高—降低变化趋势。研究结果不仅可为监控城市内涝灾害人口受灾风险的动态变化特征提供参考,亦可为城市内涝灾害防灾减灾提供决策依据。

Applying multi-agent modeling technology to the dynamic assessment of the affected population in urban waterlogging disasters can dynamically monitor the changing trends of the affected population.Taking Nanguan District,Changchun City as the empirical object,a dynamic evaluation model for the affected population of waterlogging disasters was constructed using multi-agent modeling technology.The entire process simulation of the affected population before,during,and after the waterlogging disaster was achieved.The results showed that waterlogging disasters develop over time,and the affected population showed a trend of increasing decreasing increasing decreasing decreasing at low risk;The affected population showed an increasing decreasing increasing decreasing decreasing decreasing trend in the medium risk state,but the change amplitude was smaller than that in the low risk state;The affected population showed an increasing decreasing trend in a high-risk state.The research results not only provided dynamic changes in the risk of urban waterlogging disasters to the population,but also provided decision-making basis for disaster prevention and reduction of urban waterlogging disasters.