武汉市水资源承载力综合评价及可持续利用研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Utilization in Wuhan City

为协调武汉市水资源供需平衡关系,促进水资源可持续利用,基于改进TOPSIS法和系统动力学对武汉市水资源承载力进行了综合评价和仿真模拟,实现了静态评价和动态预测相结合。结果表明,2010~2020年武汉市水资源承载力总体呈波动上升,整体水平处于临界状态。模拟武汉市2021~2035年的发展状况,常规发展模式下武汉市的水资源承载力已超出极限,难以维持需求;经济优先模式以牺牲资源环境换取经济提速,表现出最为严重的水资源问题;环境友好模式虽可减少水资源消耗、改善生态环境,但经济发展也受到一定的限制;综合发展模式从协调平衡的角度出发,在满足经济稳速发展的同时也实现了资源节约、环境保护,以最小的水资源消耗获取了最大的经济和生态效益,实现了人与自然的和谐发展。

In order to coordinate the balance between water resources supply and demand and promote the sustainable use of water resources in Wuhan City,this paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation and simulation of the water sources re-carrying capacity of Wuhan based on the improved TOPSIS method and system dynamics,and realizes a tion combina-of static evaluation and dynamic prediction.The results show that the overall water resources carrying capacity of Wuhan City fluctuates and increases from 2010 to 2020,and the overall level is in a critical state;By simulating the opment devel-of Wuhan City from 2021 to 2035,the water resources carrying capacity of Wuhan City under the conventional development model has exceeded the limit and it is difficult to maintain the demand;The economic priority model fices sacri-resources and environment for economic speed up,which shows the most serious water resources;The friendly environment-model can reduce water consumption and improve the ecological environment,but the economic development is also limited to a certain extent;The integrated development model,from the perspective of coordination and balance,can achieve resource conservation and environmental protection while satisfying the steady and rapid economic development,and obtain the maximum economic and ecological benefits with the minimum water consumption,achieving the ous harmoni-development of human and nature.